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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.Market News: New Zealand has put forward the reason to the United States that it hopes not to introduce new tariffs during Trump's administration.The Federal Reserve's loan balance in the discount window in the week of December 11th was $2.61 billion, compared with $2.43 billion in the previous week. The balance of bank term financing loans in the week of December 11th was 15.6 billion US dollars, compared with 17.1 billion US dollars in the previous week.

Brazilian Senate President Pacheco: I think it is possible for the House of Representatives and the Senate to approve the financial plan this year.Broadcom's profit was higher than expected. Artificial intelligence promoted sales growth. Broadcom, a chip supplier of Apple and other large technology companies, announced that its fourth-quarter profit was better than expected, and the demand for artificial intelligence boosted growth. The company said in a statement on Thursday that earnings per share excluding some items were $1.42. Revenue rose to nearly $14.1 billion. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the average forecast of analysts was $1.39 per share and $14.1 billion in revenue. Broadcom expects sales to reach $14.6 billion in the first fiscal quarter ending January, in line with analysts' expectations. Broadcom's financial report shows that the demand for artificial intelligence computing is hedging the slowdown in other fields. Broadcom, like NVIDIA, has positioned itself as the main beneficiary of artificial intelligence expenditure. After the announcement of the financial report, Broadcom's share price once rose more than 6% after hours. As of Thursday's close, the stock has increased by 62% since 2024.WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.38%, while WTI January crude oil futures closed down 0.27 US dollars, down 0.38% to 70.02 US dollars/barrel. Brent February crude oil futures closed down 0.11 US dollars, down 0.15% to 73.41 US dollars/barrel. Nymex January natural gas futures closed up 2.28% at $3.4550/million British heat.

On the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration, Costco executives said that the company had faced tariffs in the past and believed that its businesses had the ability to cope with this situation.Goldman Sachs: We estimate that if the price of Brent crude oil falls to the range of more than $50/barrel by the end of 2025, the growth rate of shale oil supply in the United States will fall below 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, which in turn will push the price of Brent crude oil up by $8 per barrel in 2025.The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue the gale blue warning at 06: 00 on December 13th. It is estimated that there will be 5 winds and gusts of 6-8 in parts of central and eastern Inner Mongolia, northwestern Shanxi, northern Hebei, central Henan and southwestern Shandong from 08: 00 on December 13th to 08: 00 on December 14th. Most of the Yellow Sea, most of the East China Sea, Taiwan Province Strait, east of Taiwan Province, bashi channel, northern and central South China Sea, and Beibu Gulf will have strong winds of 7-8 grades and gusts of 9 grades.